Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning is a structured approach to imagining multiple, plausible futures. Rather than predicting one outcome, it helps groups explore a range of possibilities shaped by uncertainty and change. It’s a powerful tool for preparing strategy, stimulating creative thinking, and stress-testing assumptions

Duration: 90m +

Participants: 6 - 30

Difficulty: High

by Suzanne Whitby

Goal

To create and explore diverse future scenarios that help inform present-day thinking and planning.

Materials

Instructions

Introduce the purpose: Explain that scenarios are not predictions, but plausible stories about how the future might unfold under different conditions.
Define key uncertainties: As a group or in advance, identify two major uncertainties that will shape the future of your topic (e.g. ,“Regulation: strict vs. light” and “Technology adoption: slow vs. fast”). These will form the axes of a 2x2 matrix.
Map the 2x2: Place each uncertainty on one axis of a grid, creating four quadrants, each representing a distinct future.
Develop scenarios: Divide into small groups. Assign each group a quadrant and ask them to develop a scenario where both conditions are true. Encourage storytelling: What’s happening in this future? Who is affected? What challenges or opportunities arise?
Share and reflect: Each group presents their scenario. Discuss what’s surprising, what feels plausible, and what this might mean for action today.

Facilitation tips

Keep the framing grounded but open. Encourage imagination without drifting into science fiction.
If the group struggles with uncertainty, begin with trends or drivers from previous exercises (e.g. STEEPLE or Horizon Scanning).

Scenarios work best when the uncertainties are truly uncertain, rather than when they are just opposites of what’s already known.

Attachments

icon_scenarioplanning@2x.jpg

Background

Originally developed by the RAND Corporation and later popularised by Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s, Scenario Planning is one of the most widely used tools in strategic foresight. It encourages resilience by helping groups prepare for a range of possible futures rather than just one forecast.

Author

Suzanne Whitby

Futurer, facilitator, storyteller, communicator. Helping groups imagine, explore and co-create hopeful, sustainable futures.

🌱 Hi, I'm Suzanne, and I work at the intersection of futures thinking, science communication, storytelling, sustainability. I co-create hopeful, sustainable futures with communities, researchers, and organisations. My conviction: We can't create the futures we can't imagine. That's why futures facilitation & clear communication aren't nice-to-haves: they're essential for navigating uncertainty & building better futures. 🧩 I’ve worked with: European research & innovation programmes (Green Deal, Horizon Europe, Erasmus+, Creative Europe etc.) • UN • CERN • IMF • European Climate Pact • Sanford Burnham Prebys • Genentech • University of Cambridge • Society for Experimental Biology • + many others 🧭 I'm curious about... ...how evidence, imagination, and conversation come together to support hopeful, sustainable futures for people, planet, and systems. That's why I teach science communication, AND combine futures methods with facilitation, storytelling, participatory approaches, and embodied, place-based practices. 🌍 A bit more about me: South African-born, Innsbruck-based, globally curious. Voracious reader, urban walker, ocean-obsessed. Always up for a conversation.