Futures Wheel

To explore the potential consequences of a change or development in a structured, visual way. Supports deeper thinking about how futures unfold across layers and domains. 

1. Start with a clear central change or event. This could be a trend, innovation, decision, or shift identified earlier in the workshop. Write it in the centre of the paper.
2. Ask participants to generate first-order consequences. Direct and immediate effects of that change. Place these in a ring around the centre.
3. Then, for each first-order consequence, ask: “What happens as a result of this?” This becomes the second order. Repeat to a third order if time allows.
4. Encourage discussion around each ring. What’s desirable? What’s unexpected? What links are forming?
5. If needed, prioritise which consequences feel most relevant, risky, or actionable.

Facilitation tips

• This method works especially well when paired with a prior scanning exercise, such as STEEPL (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, Legal). Use STEEPL to identify key external changes, then select one or more for deeper exploration using the Futures Wheel.
• Use a timer to keep the exercise moving.
• It’s like that many groups will get stuck on the first ring so be ready with examples and support.

• Remind participants that not all consequences are certain. This exercise is about plausible possibilities, not predictions.

• You can do this as one shared map, or several small group wheels with different starting points.

Created by Jerome C. Glenn in the early 1970s, the Futures Wheel has become a staple of futures and strategic foresight practice. It supports systems thinking by mapping not just what might happen, but what happens because it happens.