Scenario Planning

1. Introduce the purpose: Explain that scenarios are not predictions, but plausible stories about how the future might unfold under different conditions.
2. Define key uncertainties: As a group or in advance, identify two major uncertainties that will shape the future of your topic (e.g. ,“Regulation: strict vs. light” and “Technology adoption: slow vs. fast”). These will form the axes of a 2x2 matrix.
3. Map the 2x2: Place each uncertainty on one axis of a grid, creating four quadrants, each representing a distinct future.
4. Develop scenarios: Divide into small groups. Assign each group a quadrant and ask them to develop a scenario where both conditions are true. Encourage storytelling: What’s happening in this future? Who is affected? What challenges or opportunities arise?
5. Share and reflect: Each group presents their scenario. Discuss what’s surprising, what feels plausible, and what this might mean for action today.

Facilitation tips

• Keep the framing grounded but open. Encourage imagination without drifting into science fiction.
• If the group struggles with uncertainty, begin with trends or drivers from previous exercises (e.g. STEEPLE or Horizon Scanning).

Scenarios work best when the uncertainties are truly uncertain, rather than when they are just opposites of what’s already known.