Risks, Opportunities and Resilience

To identify key risks and opportunities linked to emerging changes, and to explore ways to build resilience: within systems, organisations, or communities.

1. Introduce the purpose: this is a chance to explore what a particular change (or future scenario) might mean. Position this not just in terms of potential and opportunity, but also risk and readiness.
2. Choose a focal trend, signal, or future development. This can come from earlier exercises like Horizon Scanning or Scenario Planning.
3. In small groups, ask participants to discuss and record:
   
• Risks: What could go wrong? What might be disrupted, lost, or destabilised?
• Opportunities: What new possibilities might open up? Who could benefit?
• Resilience: How well prepared are we? What capabilities, resources, or relationships would help us respond or adapt?
4. Encourage participants to be specific. Ask them to think about systems, people, tools, and behaviours.
5. Groups present highlights from their discussion to the full group. Optionally, capture key insights on a shared wall or board for later reference.

Facilitation tips

• This method can be framed positively or cautiously depending on the energy in the room.
• Use follow-up questions to go deeper: What makes us vulnerable? Where are we most adaptable?
• Works well at the end of a futures process, as a bridge into strategic planning.

 While not attributed to a single source, this kind of three-part framing is widely used in strategy, design, and foresight processes. It helps groups balance aspiration with awareness. Recognising that futures work is as much about readiness as it is about vision.